Mark G. Hazen and I have had a private Email discussion on market sizes, the result of can be found below. This is an attempt to find a formula that will calculate market sizes for all settlements. The inspiration is of course the "Pilot's Almanac" (PA) but we wanted to be able to calculate the MktSiz of interior markets as well. We have checked our results against the PA but have not hesitated to change the values in the table of Harnic markets given below from those in the PA which we found (in our view) to be illogical. An example of this is Aleath which is given MktSiz 3 in PA but we found it more appropriate to award Aleath with MktSiz 4.

Peter Brink

MARKET SIZES

Basic formula: 0.25*N_minor_traderoutes + 0.50*N_med_traderoutes + 1.00*N_maj_traderoutes + MarketType + Population + Seasonal_Modifiers + Fairs + Emporiae = MarketSize [Results are rounded up]

VARIABLES

TRADE ROUTES

Minor Traderoute 0.25 per route
Medium Traderoute 0.50 per route
Major Traderoute 1 per route

MARKET TYPES

Port of Trade 3
Regional Centre 2
Local Centre 1

POPULATION

2,000 + 1
10,000 + 2
20,000 + 3

SPECIAL VARIABLES

SEASONAL MODIFIERS

+/- 1

FAIRS

Local 1 (only MktSiz 0-2)
Regional 2 (only MktSiz 0-5)
International 3 (any MktSiz)

EMPORIAE

Trade Post 1
Or add +1 to MktSiz on a seasonal basis.

MARKET TYPES:

So in the formula population covers the immediate market, Market type handles redistribution to and from local area, trade routes covers input/output capabilities.

We propose that 2 minor trade routes equal a medium trade route, and 2 medium trade routes equal a major trade route. Trade routes are rated by the amount of trade volume they carry where trade volumes are described in terms of numbers of medium sized caravans (10-20 wagons) or good sized ships (100+ tons) arriving. Volumes would be averaged over the year.

Major trade route = at least 1 caravan or ship per day.
Medium trade route = at least 1 caravan or ship per week (10 days).
Minor trade route = at least 1 caravan or ship per month (30 days).

SEASONAL VARIATIONS

Some types of goods, grain and furs for example, have a very seasonal character. Smaller markets (size 0 and 1 especially) are usually more dependent on such goods and should therefore be adjusted accordingly. We propose a seasonal variation of +/- 1 to MktSiz for such markets. This would make out of season goods unobtainable in small markets and barely obtainable in larger markets.

FAIRS

Fairs were an important event for many medieval merchants; they were yearly or seasonal some rotated between several location's others were stationary.

Fairs usually have a theme, i.e. trade is conducted almost exclusively in one or two commodities. It also gathers merchants from a large area to a well known and easily accessible site. The Fair has a fairly short duration of a month or so; on the other hand this is well known among the mercantylers and they plan accordingly. Small fairs or market days trade in a larger set of goods, have a much shorter duration (a day or so) but are equally predictable, these Fairs are usually co-ordinated between settlements so that merchants can travel from market to market collecting goods (grain mostly) and selling rare or essential goods (such as salt).

If a settlement harbours a fair its market size should (temporarily) increase:
Local Fair (such as a Hundred Moot session) MktSiz + 1
Regional Fair (such as the Silver fair at Tashal or the Fur fair in Leriel) MktSiz + 2
International Fairs (such as the Fairs of Champagne or Flanders) MktSiz + 3

Local fairs and market days can effect markets of size 0-2, Regional fairs can effect markets of size 0-5 and International fairs markets of any size.

The theory being that a local fair in a market of size 3 or larger would not make an appreciable difference. (We see market size rating as being a logarithmic scale.)

EMPORIA

These were trading post or trading settlements, Birka in Lake Mälaren near Stockholm (Sweden) is a good example. They were usually found in border areas and served as semi-permanent, seasonal markets, almost exclusively for long-distance goods. Goris and Chelemby probably started like an emporia and later grew to permanent settlements. A Trading Post's work is a little different than a Fair's. They have a longer duration (a season or two), trade in a wider array of goods and operate on a smaller scale. A Fair gets a relatively high bonus to its MktSize because of the concentration of transactions in a limited time-span, the trade at a Trading Post is strung out over a larger time-span thus lowering the bonus to MktSiz.

In Harn trading posts trading with the Tribal nations would have a MktSiz of 1. Many of the Orbaleese settlements might also act as Emporia's, at least temporarily, and would at such times receive MktSiz + 1.

MarketSize table
Market Pop Market Type Major Route Medium Route Minor Route Market Size
Cherafir 1 3 1 2 0 6
Tashal 2 2 0 0 4 5
Qualdris 0 1 0 0 1 2
Kiban 1 1 0 0 0 2
Coranan 2 2 0 1 2 5
Thay 1 2 0 1 1 4 (med sea, min land)
Chyrefal 0 1 0 0 2 2
Golotha 1 2 0 2 0 4
Aleath 1 2 0 1 0 4
Shiran 1 1 0 0 1 3
Tormau 0 1 0 0 0 1
Trobridge 0 0 0 0 1 1 Seasonal Market
Azadmere 2 1 0 0 1 4
Burzyn 0 1 0 0 1 2
Sarkum 0 1 0 0 1 2
Techen 0 1 0 0 1 2
Lorkin 0 1 0 0 3 2 Noron's Way and Fur
Geldenheim 0 1 0 1 1 2
Ulfshafen 0 1 0 0 1 2 Outlet for all elvish goods
Minarsas 0 1 0 0 0 1
Dyrisa 0 2 0 0 2 3
Moleryn 0 2 0 0 2 3
Leriel 0 1 0 0 1 2

Hopefully you will find the above suggestions useful. Please do comment, there is no reason to believe that we have been able to work all wrinkles out ;)

Peter Brink and Mark G. Hazen. Converted to HTML by Magnus Lyckå 22 September 1995